Open in new window / Try shogun cloud
--- Log opened Thu May 05 00:00:44 2011
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blackburnserialhex: hadn't been here for a long!00:24
serialhexyeah i know blackburn, my computer flipped out on me and i've been trying to fix it00:24
blackburnserialhex: Soeren got a new baby :)00:25
serialhexevery so often the windows refuse to redraw unless i _manually_ move them or something!00:25
serialhexnice!!  is s/he healthy?00:25
blackburnI think so, his name is Jan00:25
serialhexcool00:26
* serialhex must congratulate sonney2k when i see him next00:26
serialhexi'm currently setting up a backup system - a laptop wth a broken lcd & slow processor - so if shit wants to be all funky i have something i can work on (in a console only, but still...)00:28
blackburnI have one notebook with broken screen :)00:29
blackburnhe became RAM donor for my new notebook :D00:29
serialhexsweet!00:32
serialhexyeah, this is a celeron m with 512 meg ram i think... it's pretty crappy, but it'll run a console session just fine (even through ssh) but it'll take FOR FUCKING EVAR to compile stuff!00:33
serialhex...in fact, trying to run 2 ssh sessions (root & user) is being slow :P00:35
blackburnerr, such a crap :D00:37
blackburndamn ARMA models! AEGHEFW00:40
alesis-novikblackburn, ARMA models are fun01:18
blackburnalesis-novik: oh, may be you could help me?01:18
alesis-novikwith?01:18
blackburnlook, why it could be possible that ARMA(2,3) is better than ARMA(3,3)?01:19
blackburnwhy ARMA(3,3) didn't become ARMA(2,3)?01:19
alesis-novikDepends, are we talking about training or specifying the model?01:19
blackburntraining. if we find models, why it could be possible?01:20
blackburnI mean if we are finding best models01:20
blackburnwhy ARMA(3,3) not have one zero coef. for AR what makes it ARMA(2,3)01:20
blackburnalesis-novik: do you see a 'paradox'?01:22
alesis-novikAh, what do you mean by better?01:23
blackburnalesis-novik: eh. yeah, forgot to tell you what I mean01:23
blackburnI meant less deviation from sample covariation01:24
blackburnalesis-novik: 'better' is more similar covariation of both model and sample01:25
blackburnsorry for curvy language I'm getting afraid when talking about math :D01:25
alesis-novikso we train models on the sample and the question is why can ARMA(2, 3) be better than ARMA(3, 3) for the same sample?01:27
blackburnyeap01:28
blackburnalesis-novik: ARMA(2,3) is just a special case of ARMA(3,3), right?01:29
alesis-novikI'd say both of them are just different ARMA(p, q) models01:30
alesis-novikand it doesn't really make sense for ARMA(3, 3) to perform worse on *training* data than ARMA(2, 3), if we do train the models01:31
blackburnalesis-novik: yeah, I'd say they are different but my prof. don't agree :)01:32
alesis-novikwhat do they say?01:33
blackburnonly one zero coef. get ARMA(3,3)  to ARMA(3,2)01:33
alesis-novikthat's true01:33
blackburnalesis-novik: I was asked by my lecturer01:33
blackburnwith that question, why it could be better01:33
blackburnI think the answer is somewhere around word 'better'01:34
alesis-novikWell, I'd say the problem is the same as with most things in ML: more parameters - better training fit - might lead to overfitting the data01:34
blackburnyeah but he said the answer isn't in ML or econometrics field01:35
blackburnI'm really stucked with it :)01:35
alesis-novikyou could always go for the silly, yet obvious answer: if the data was generated by an ARMA(2, 3) process, then it will be a better fit :D01:36
blackburnexactly, but the answer should contain not data reasoning like that01:37
blackburnanyway, thank you :)01:38
blackburnhow are your exams?01:38
alesis-novik4 out of 8 done, next one on Monday01:39
blackburnI see01:42
blackburngood luck to you01:42
blackburn3-42 here and I'm a bit tired :)01:42
blackburnsee you01:42
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* sonney2k takes a deep breath19:49
@sonney2kBlackburn, thanks for your help!19:54
blackburnsonney2k: I have done nothing :)19:55
@bettyboo:^)19:55
blackburnsonney2k: how are you?19:55
blackburnthe only thing - some guy asked example of kernel usage, but he didn't solved his problem yet. anyway I won't answer him now, have to study more now19:57
@sonney2kWe are all fine19:58
blackburnnice to hear that19:58
@sonney2kLittle sleep tonight though the baby kept us awake every full hour being hungry :-)19:59
blackburn:D20:01
@sonney2kInternet connection and mobile reception sucks though in this hospital here.20:12
@sonney2kAnd even worse I don't have Shogun on my Android mobile.20:12
blackburnwhy you want to have shogun? :)20:13
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serialhexsonney2k: you dont have ssh set up?  that what i've done and (hopefully) will eliminate most of my computer woes!  things are 90% set back up so i should be back in action soon!21:51
@sonney2kserialhex: this phone needs a keyboard. Typing really is not effective.22:26
serialhexsonney2k: ahh, i see!  and i really hate those on-screen keyboards too, most of them suck!   so i take it everything is good over there?22:31
@sonney2kYes indeed all good.22:35
@sonney2kNow for some sleep...22:35
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blackburngood night ^)23:24
--- Log closed Fri May 06 00:00:45 2011